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Gold Market Analysis
Daily research explaining the macroeconomic, policy, and technical drivers behind movements in the gold price.
Gold Rebounds on Dip-Buying as CPI Pushes Rate-Hike Odds to 87%
Gold rose $48 (+1.1%) to $4,363 per troy ounce as dip-buyers stepped in after two sharp down sessions, even as August CPI accelerated to 0.4% and pushed next week's Fed rate-hike probability to 87% from 67%.
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Gold Falls as Hot PPI and Oil's Surge to $105 Push Rate-Hike Odds to 70%
Gold fell $58 (-1.3%) to $4,356 per troy ounce after August producer prices rose 0.4% and Brent crude jumped 4% to around $105 a barrel, pushing next week's Fed rate-hike probability to 70% from 62% — even as the ECB delivered its second hike of the year.
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Gold Rises as Weaker Dollar Offsets Oil's Break Above $100 Ahead of PPI, CPI
Gold rose $29 (+0.7%) to $4,414 per troy ounce as a dollar near a two-week low outweighed the pressure from Brent crude's first move above $100 since July 24 and the 10-year Treasury yield's highest level since November 2023.
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Gold Falls as Oil Nears $100 on Houthi Attacks and Iran's Warning to the U.S.
Gold fell $28 (-0.6%) to $4,385 per troy ounce as Brent crude climbed to $99.46, its highest since July 24, after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities and Iran's threat of "economic warfare" against the U.S. stoked inflation concerns.
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Gold Holds Steady in Thin Labor Day Trade as CPI and PPI Loom
Gold slipped $7 (-0.2%) to $4,413 per troy ounce in thin Labor Day holiday trading, as September rate-hike odds held near 60% following Friday's strong jobs report, with markets now focused on Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI data.
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Gold Falls as Strong Payrolls Report Reverses Thursday's Dovish-Driven Rally
Gold fell $69 (-1.5%) to $4,419 per troy ounce, and as much as 2% intraday, after accelerating U.S. job growth in August pushed September rate-hike odds back up to 65% from 55%, reversing much of Thursday's Waller-driven gains.
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Gold Jumps 2.6% as Fed's Waller Signals Support for Holding Rates Steady
Gold surged $112 (+2.6%) to $4,489 per troy ounce, its highest since August 28, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd support holding rates steady if inflation continues moderating, pulling September rate-hike odds down to 54% from 62%.
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Gold Rebounds as Treasury Yields and the Dollar Pull Back From Recent Highs
Gold rose $34 (+0.8%) to $4,376 per troy ounce after touching a fresh low since August 7, as retreating oil prices pulled Treasury yields and the dollar off their recent highs ahead of Friday's critical nonfarm payrolls report.
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Gold Extends Slide as Treasury Yields Surge and 200-Day Moving Average Breaks
Gold fell $91 (-2.1%) to $4,342 per troy ounce, its lowest since August 19, as the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since January 2025 and technical selling accelerated after gold's break below its 200-day moving average.
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Gold Falls to Two-Week Low as Rate-Hike Bets Build and Oil Surges on Hormuz Strike
Gold fell $134 (-2.9%) to $4,433 per troy ounce, its lowest since August 19, as September rate-hike odds climbed to 64% and oil jumped over 2% after a U.S. strike on an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz — though gold remains up about 9.7% for the month.
Read MoreGold Tumbles as Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Speech Lifts Rate-Hike Odds
Gold fell $41 (-0.9%), and as much as 3% intraday, to $4,567 per troy ounce after Fed Chair Warsh said policymakers still have "work to do" on inflation, sending September rate-hike odds surging from 36% to 58%.
Read MoreGold Recovers Modestly as Dollar Weakens Ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech
Gold rose $12 (+0.3%) to $4,608 per troy ounce, recovering from Wednesday's 1.4% drop, as a weaker dollar and renewed dollar-debasement concerns provided support ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's Friday Jackson Hole speech.
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Gold Falls as Sticky PCE Inflation Lifts September Rate-Hike Odds
Gold fell $60 (-1.3%) to $4,596 per troy ounce after July PCE inflation came in at 3.7% year-over-year, slightly above expectations, pushing September rate-hike odds up to around 40% and prompting profit-taking after Tuesday's three-month high.
Read MoreGold Approaches $4,700 as China Demand Firms Ahead of Jackson Hole
Gold closed near $4,647 per troy ounce after briefly touching $4,696 intraday, its highest in over three months, as investors turned cautious near the $4,700 level ahead of Wednesday's PCE data and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
Read MoreGold Extends Rally to Three-Month High as ETF Inflows Surge Ahead of Jackson Hole
Gold rose $36 (+0.8%) to $4,639 per troy ounce, a fresh three-month high, as Treasury buybacks continued pressuring the dollar and gold-backed ETFs saw their strongest weekly inflows in 10 months ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
Read MoreGold Hits Three-Month High as It Breaks Above Its 200-Day Moving Average
Gold surged $108 (+2.4%) to $4,624 per troy ounce, its highest since May 15, after breaking decisively above its 200-day moving average and as Treasury buyback expectations weakened the dollar, with TD Securities eyeing $4,700 next.
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Gold Holds Near Highs as Profit-Taking Meets Treasury Buyback Support
Gold slipped $4 (-0.1%) to $4,516 per troy ounce after touching its highest level since June 2, as profit-taking and hawkish Fed minutes were offset by Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments on larger bond buybacks.
Read MoreGold Jumps 2.8% as Treasury Buyback Surprise Sends Yields Lower
Gold surged $123 (+2.80%) to $4,488 per troy ounce, its highest since June 4, after the U.S. Treasury's surprise move to double longer-dated bond buybacks pushed yields lower and weakened the dollar.
Read MoreGold Falls as Bond Yields Surge to Decades-High Levels and Oil Extends Gains
Gold fell $52 (-1.18%) to $4,365 per troy ounce as the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since mid-2007 and oil rose for a third straight session on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.
Read MoreGold Climbs as Dollar Hits Two-Month Low and Rate-Hike Odds Fade Further
Gold rose $39 (+0.89%) to $4,417 per troy ounce as the dollar fell to a more than two-month low and September rate-hike odds dropped to 33%, down from 51.2% a month earlier.
Read MoreGold Recovers as Weaker Dollar and Fed Hold Expectations Lift Demand
Gold rose $16 (+0.37%) to $4,380 per troy ounce, recovering from Thursday's profit-taking, as a weaker dollar and roughly two-thirds odds of a September rate hold supported renewed demand.
Read MoreGold Retreats From Two-Month High as Traders Take Profits Near $4,500
Gold fell $52 (-1.18%) to $4,355 per troy ounce, pulling back from a two-month high of $4,449, as traders locked in gains from the week's roughly 9% rally near the $4,500 resistance level.
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Gold Hits Highest Level Since June as In-Line Inflation Data Cuts Rate-Hike Odds
Gold rose $40 (+0.91%) to $4,407 per troy ounce, its highest since June 5, after in-line July inflation data pushed September rate-hike odds down to around 40% and the metal broke above its 100-day moving average.
Read MoreGold Holds Near Two-Month High as Investors Await CPI and PPI Data
Gold was little changed at $4,376 per troy ounce after touching a more than two-month high of $4,435, as investors paused ahead of this week's CPI and PPI reports with September rate-hike odds roughly split 50/50.
Read MoreGold Extends Rally to Nine-Week High as China Boosts Reserves
Gold rose $31 (+0.71%) to $4,376 per troy ounce, touching a nine-week high, as momentum from Friday's weak jobs report continued and China recorded its largest monthly gold purchase since October 2023.
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Gold Jumps to Seven-Week High as Weak U.S. Jobs Data Cools Rate-Hike Bets
Gold surged $89 (+2.10%) to $4,336 per troy ounce, a seven-week high, after a weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report sharply reduced the odds of a September Fed rate hike.
Read MoreGold Holds Narrow Range as Hormuz Tensions Offset Rate-Cut Optimism
Gold eased slightly to $4,244 per troy ounce after giving back most of Wednesday's rally, as reports Iran was reviewing legislation to restrict vessels through the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher and revived inflation concerns.
Read MoreGold Surges 4% as Treasury Yields Fall and Iran Diplomacy Optimism Grows
Gold jumped $170 (+4.17%) to $4,247 per troy ounce, its strongest daily gain since February, as falling Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and growing optimism over U.S.-Iran diplomacy drove renewed inflows.
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Gold Rises as Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns
Gold rose $26 (+0.64%) to $4,077 per troy ounce as a sharp decline in Brent crude eased inflation expectations and reduced the odds of the Fed keeping rates higher for longer.
Read MoreGold Slips as Fed Officials Signal Rates May Stay Higher for Longer
Gold fell $20 (-0.49%) to $4,055 per troy ounce as investors turned to this week's U.S. labor data and Fed officials reinforced expectations that rates could stay elevated if inflation doesn't ease.
Read MoreGold Falls as Dollar Rebounds and Rising Oil Prices Revive Inflation Fears
Gold fell $57 (-1.39%) to $4,045 per troy ounce as the dollar rebounded from its prior-session decline and rising Brent crude prices renewed inflation concerns, even as the broader rate-cut outlook stayed intact.
Read MoreGold Rises as Softer Inflation Data Cools Fed Rate-Hike Bets
Gold rose $37 (+0.91%) to $4,111 per troy ounce as a weaker dollar and a softer-than-feared PCE inflation reading pushed the probability of a September rate hike down to around 61%.
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Gold Rises as Fed Holds Rates Steady and the Dollar Weakens
Gold rose $38 (+0.94%) to $4,065 per troy ounce after the Fed held interest rates steady, weakening the dollar and pulling Treasury yields lower, even as renewed Iran-U.S. tensions pushed oil prices higher.
Read MoreBrief Gold Market Overview
Gold fell $52 (-1.28%) to $4,027 per troy ounce as a stronger dollar, near a one-month high ahead of this week's Fed decision, outweighed support from falling oil prices.
Read MoreBrief Gold Market Overview
Gold rose $25 (+0.62%) to $4,077 per troy ounce after a U.S.-Iran military pause sent oil prices sharply lower, easing inflation concerns, though a possible September Fed rate hike capped further gains.
Read MoreBrief Gold Market Overview
Gold rose $4 (+0.10%) to $4,052 per troy ounce as retreating oil prices eased inflation concerns, though elevated Treasury yields and Fed rate-hike odds capped a stronger recovery.
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Brief Gold Market Overview
Gold fell $70 (-1.71%) to $4,049 per troy ounce as a sharp jump in oil prices lifted inflation and rate expectations, with Fed rate-hike odds for September rising to roughly 83%.
Read MoreBrief Gold Market Overview
Gold rose $70 (+1.75%) to $4,076 per troy ounce, driven by a weaker dollar and strong technical buying that outweighed inflationary pressure from a sharp rise in oil prices.
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